Peter Thiel's talk at the National Conservatism Conference is chock full of hard questions, well-reasoned thoughts and dry humor. Absolutely worth watching, though probably easier to stomach if you lean libertarian. Investment takeaway: Avoid Wall Street banks if you think the US trade deficit will shrink. Peter brought up an interesting point: balancing trade will … Continue reading Peter Thiel: What Do We Not Want to Talk About?
Greetings, Trump and Xi will be meeting over lunch tomorrow in Osaka. Many hope to see a significant x.0 upgrade in the G2 relationship, a G2.0 if you will. The big news (so far): SCMP is reporting a tentatively agreed truce and joint press releases to be out before the meeting. The report also says a … Continue reading Links of Interest 2019.Jun.29
This is my transcription of Michael Pettis's interview with SuperReturnTV. Interviewer: How has Donald Trump affected US CHINA relationship? MP: China has a current account surplus, of course. And it needs that current account surplus because China has a big problem with demand. It has insufficient domestic demand so it has to balance that with … Continue reading Michael Pettis: The US-China Relationship
A trade war is like a Prisoner's Dilemma game gone wrong. (1) Trust between both sides has eroded. (2) They cannot communicate effectively. (3) They decide to forego cooperation and defect. (4) And, by foregoing cooperation both sides are hurt. In a prisoner's dilemma game, two players are separated (can't communicate) and given two choices: … Continue reading Trade War as Prisoner’s Dilemma