Some interesting links out today.
- New issue of Graham & Doddsville (PDF, Winter 2016) has a very candid interview with Craig Effron, who is a long-time trader hedge fund manager and provides valuable insight on the current state of hedge funds and how his firm invests.
- Ray Dalio in the FT on why tightening now is a mistake. He believes (as do I) that we are nearing the end of the expansion phase of a Long-Term Debt Cycle. The problem is, this is comes 7 years into the expansion phase of a short-term business cycle, which is typically the time to tighten fed policy. The heart of the matter is that debt and debt servicing costs are high relative to income. He suggests central bankers to “err on the side of waiting until they see the whites of the eyes of inflation before tightening.” // NOTE: AFAIK THE ALL WEATHER FUND LEVERS UP BOND HOLDINGS TO ATTAIN RISK PARITY. #BOOKTALKWARNING